DIVIDEND NORTH · ETF WHAT-IF
What could happen to your ETFs?
Explore price movement or total return under a future market scenario. Hypothetical—not a forecast.
Bull: rising market · Bear: falling market · Sideways: flat by default; you can change its endpoint.
Defaults: +10% / −10% / 0% annually, compounded to your selected period. Edited moves below replace those defaults for this period. These are what-if assumptions, not forecasts.
Loading fund details…
Assumptions & sources
This is a conditional historical-response illustration, not an analyst price target or an expected outcome. Defaults use Bull +10% annually, Bear −10%, Sideways 0%. The default period move is (1 + annual assumption) raised to (months / 12), minus 1: six months gives +4.9%, −5.1% or 0%. Edited percentages instead apply directly over the selected period, without annualisation. Reset restores the exact defaults. These are assumptions, not estimated forecasts or probabilities.
Here Bull and Bear are directional what-if labels. Conventional bull and bear market definitions generally use 20% broad-index moves; they do not require a 20% forecast over your chosen horizon. Sideways defaults to a flat reference endpoint, but can be edited; it does not imply zero volatility or a zero ETF return.
Uses matched daily log-price changes from the selected last 3 or 6 calendar months, requiring at least 45 or 90 paired observations respectively and coverage near the window start. Sensitivity (beta) is covariance of ETF and reference changes divided by reference variance. The default price endpoint is latest price × (1 + reference scenario move) raised to beta. The fitted residual price trend is excluded unless you enable it; then exp(intercept × 21 × months) is also applied. Relationships can change, especially with short samples. The smooth path hides volatility and is not a confidence interval.
The historical price check fits the first 70% of the selected observations and tests the remaining 30%, without fitting on the test data. It uses actual reference moves during that later window—not reference forecasts. The endpoint comparison and mean absolute daily price-return error measure conditional historical fit only, not six-month predictive accuracy or payout reliability. Bitcoin UTC daily closes are not synchronised with ETF exchange closes, so this is an approximate date-matched analysis.
Both views start at the latest price of one share in its trading currency. Total return requires verified historical distributions and a latest declared regular cash payout with a known frequency. Special, estimated and non-cash payouts are not repeated. Historical cash is reinvested at ex-date closes and rebased to today’s share price. Future payments repeat the latest declared amount at equal-spaced payment periods, held unchanged; monthly means one payment at each projected month-end. Each payment buys fractional shares at that point’s hypothetical share price. This is illustrative timing, not a confirmed future schedule. The breakdown shows price plus cash on one original share plus the incremental effect of reinvestment, including gains or losses on the additional shares. No cash is counted twice. Components are rounded to reconcile to the displayed combined value—not a quoted share price. Manual combined overrides have no inferred price/cash split. Future payout-related price adjustments are not separately modelled, which can overstate results.
Embedded fees are reflected in historical prices. Taxes, trading costs, changing option strategies, volatility regimes and future currency changes are not separately modelled. A covered-call fund can respond differently from its past relationship, especially after a large move. Price dates are shown per fund; data older than seven days is rejected.
Mixed exposures use the S&P 500 (SPY) automatically as a shared market reference. This is market context, not each fund’s own benchmark or a claim of equivalent holdings. Reference currency: loading; no currency-adjusted benchmark return is implied.